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OCTOBER 11,  2017

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

WHY IS THIS NECESSARY? – FROM NBC NEWS:   The Boy Scouts of America announced on Wednesday that girls will soon be allowed to become Cub Scouts and to earn the coveted rank of Eagle Scout, the organization’s highest honor.  "We believe it is critical to evolve how our programs meet the needs of families interested in positive and lifelong experiences for their children," said Michael Surbaugh, chief executive of the Boy Scouts.  The scouting board of directors voted unanimously to make the historic change in an organization that has been primarily for boys since its founding more than 100 years ago.  Isn't this what the Girl Scouts are supposed to do?  It sounds more like a business decision than one made to benefit girls or boys.  Some observer cynically said that the main result will be that parents will be able to drop off their daughters and sons at the same place and the same time.

A SHOW-BUSINESS EMERGENCY – FROM HOLLYWOOD REPORTER:  In the wake of the allegations of sexual assault committed by Harvey Weinstein, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has released a statement, calling the disgraced mogul's behavior "repugnant" and calling for an emergency board of governors meeting to address the issue.  "The Academy finds the conduct described in the allegations against Harvey Weinstein to be repugnant, abhorrent, and antithetical to the high standards of the Academy and the creative community it represents," the Academy said. "The Board of Governors will be holding a special meeting on Saturday, October 14, to discuss the allegations against Weinstein and any actions warranted by the Academy."   You may be sure that a fine lunch will be served.  One question these industry leaders will have to deal with is this:  If we go after Harvey, where does it end?  The Weinstein episode may create an avalanche of new charges against a whole bunch of movie-business big shots.  Do they have a new emergency meeting every week? 

DRIVERLESS IN CA – FROM BLOOMBERG:   California took another step Wednesday toward permitting testing of self-driving vehicles without a human driver, continuing a shift away from previous policies that companies criticized as being overly restrictive.  The state’s Department of Motor Vehicles on Wednesday released revisions to regulations proposed in March to allow such autonomous car testing on public roads, which could take effect by next June, California DMV Chief Counsel Brian Soublet said on a conference call with reporters.  The proposed rules would also allow companies to introduce self-driving vehicles that can be used by the general public.  Having worked in Hollywood, I can attest that California has had cars with non-humans behind the wheel for years.

October 11, 2017       Permalink

PARTY OF THE COMMON CITIZEN? – WE HOPE SO – AT 12:47 P.M. ET:   It happened first with the Reagan Revolution and the rise of the Reagan Democrats.  There are signs it is happening again, a shift of working people away from the Democratic Party and toward the Trump insurgency.  From the White House Dossier: 

If you want evidence that President Trump’s populist revolution has made the Republican Party the party of the people, look no further than the money. The donations.

An excellent but, of course, little-noted article by Matea Gold of the Washington Post reports that small-dollar donations – defined as $200 or less – to the Republican Party this year have vastly outpaced such giving to the Democrats.

According to the piece:

The $40 million in low-dollar donations the RNC has raised so far this year is the most the party has collected at this point in an election cycle since 2005, according to records compiled by the Campaign Finance Institute. And it outstrips small contributions going to the Democratic National Committee, which raised $25 million in such donations by the end of last month.

More money for the RNC is flowing through the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, which had pulled in $14.4 million as of June 30, including $11 million in donations of $200 and less, filings show.

COMMENT:  The Democratic Party has lost touch with its own historic base.  And it doesn't seem to care.  It goes out of its way to alienate the average American, whom it views with contempt.  Why, how dare those people have an opinion!

October 11, 2017       Permalink

KOREA BUILDUP – AT 11:18 A.M. ET:   Attention will be focused on Iran later this week, when the president announces his Iran policy, which may well involve a partial withdrawal from the nuclear agreement.  But let us remember that the hottest foreign-policy problem right now is North Korea.

Serious people believe there is a good chance of military action on the Korean peninsula.  It's reported that even Great Britain is beefing up its forces to join the U.S. in case of a conflict.  It's also reported that Britain might send its newest aircraft carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth, to Korean waters, even before the ship completes its sea trials.   There is a clear sense of urgency.

The United States is engaged in a major military buildup in the Korean theater, to be sure we're ready in the event of a clash.  From CNN:

US Air Force B-1 bombers carried out mock missile launches off both coasts of South Korea Tuesday night in the latest show of force against North Korea, South Korean military officials said.

Two bombers operating out of Andersen Air Force Base in Guam carried out the drills, US Pacific Air Forces said in a statement. It said the US warplanes flew with fighter jets from the South Korean air force and Japan Self-Defense Force in the first nighttime B-1 bomber exercise between the three allies.

The warplanes first conducted a simulated air-to-ground missile drill over the waters east of the Korean Peninsula and then flew over South Korea and conducted the same drill over the waters west of the peninsula, the South Korean military said.

The exercise showed the "strong ability of the alliance against the North Korean nuclear missile threat," the South Korean air force said.

The US military statement said the exercise "demonstrates how U.S. military forces in the Indo-Asia-Pacific are always ready to defend the American homeland and how the U.S. stands resolutely with Japan and the ROK to honor their unshakeable alliance commitments."

COMMENT:   A show of force is a classic psychological tactic.  We hope this one convinces the North Koreans to step back and reconsider their nuclear and missile programs, but I doubt that they will.  Then we will have crunch time.  Other presidents have kicked the can down the road, hoping some future commander-in-chief will solve the Korean problem.  Trump, we think, is different.  That is both reassuring and chilling at the same time.

October 11, 2017       Permalink

PLEASE GO AWAY.  PLEASE – AT 10:31 A.M. ET:  Will someone please sit down with Hillary Clinton and advise her to go on a cruise to Alaska?  She's still out there pumping books, and embarrassing herself.  There's talk she'll make another try in 2020, but she'll need to get into the 21st century and out of the 1960s.  From Daily Mail:

Hillary Clinton has taken a swipe at the President of the United States, calling him 'unqualified' in an interview to promote her new book.

The former Democratic presidential candidate opened up about how she felt after losing out to Trump in the 2016 election - saying she felt 'completely and totally depleted' after delivering her famous concession speech on November 9.

Clinton, 69, told Stylist magazine of her guilt at losing out to Trump, saying: 'I have a great sense of responsibility, for not winning, for letting people down.

'Even more so when you consider who my opponent was. If I had run against someone whom I disagreed with politically, but believed was up to the job, of course I would have been disappointed. 

'But being in a position where I ended up losing to someone who I don't think is qualified or temperamentally ready to be president was a very deep personal regret.'

COMMENT:  She should stop all this stuff and discuss issues.  She should, theoretically, be the leader of the Democratic Party, but the party doesn't want her.  It's veered so far to the left that it would reject Joe Stalin as too conservative. 

The Democrats are a train wreck, but remember that Republicans work hard to lose elections.  The midterms are coming up.  If Hillary Clinton can play a winning role, she might have a future.  So far she's living only in the past.

October 11,  2017     Permalink

OCTOBER 10,  2017

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

ABSOLUTELY INSPIRING – FROM DAILYWIRE:  Football players from two opposing college teams led the stadium in singing the national anthem on Saturday when the stadium's public address reportedly failed, which led to an announcement that the anthem would not be played.  The two schools, Trinity College and Hamilton College, are part of the New England Small College Athletic Conference (NESCAC) and were getting ready for kickoff when they learned about the problem with the stadium's PA system...Trinity coach Jeff Devanney said the announcement did not sit well with his players.  "A couple of guys on our team were like 'No man, you gotta play the song,'" Devanney said. "And then a couple guys just started singing."  Within a matter of moments, both teams were singing the anthem.  Watch it here.

A WARNING FROM UP NORTH – FROM THE TORONTO STAR:  Once a titan of Canadian retail, Sears Canada announced Tuesday that it is going out of business, putting 12,000 people out of work and shuttering all operations nationwide.  Among the first to lose their jobs will be most of the 800 people at head office near Dundas Square, who will be let go next week. Liquidation sales at stores are scheduled to begin Oct. 19 and to take 10 to 14 weeks.  The chain was forced into closure after a bid by executive chairman Brandon Stranzl to save the company was unsuccessful.  “Following exhaustive efforts, no viable transaction for the company to continue as a going concern was received,” according to a press release from the company issued Tuesday. “The Company deeply regrets this pending outcome and the resulting loss of jobs and store closures.”  Sears is a shadow of what it once was, but its Craftsman tools are still solid.

MOSCOW BLASTS WASHINGTON – FROM REUTERS:   MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia accused the United States on Tuesday of pretending to fight Islamic State and of deliberately reducing its air strikes in Iraq to allow the group’s militants to stream into Syria to slow the Russian-backed advance of the Syrian army.  The Pentagon strongly denied the accusations, saying that the U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State posts data every day on the number and result of strikes for the public to see.  In the latest sign of rising tensions between Moscow and Washington, the Russian Defence Ministry said in a statement that the U.S.-led coalition had sharply reduced its air strikes in Iraq in September when Syrian forces, backed by Russian air power, had started to retake Deir al-Zor Province.  Wait, wait.  I'm confused.  Wasn't President Trump supposed to be a puppet of Vladimir Putin?  Didn't he "collude" with the Russians?  All I've heard since the inauguration are Russian denunciations of the United States and the Trump administration.  Where's the supposed romance?

October 10,  2017     Permalink

ABOUT KNEES – AT 1:21 P.M. ET:   Ratings for professional football plunged again last night, and the NFL, as well as team owners, are plainly worried about what's happening.  They're finally realizing that insulting the national anthem doesn't go down well with fans.  From The Wall Street Journal: 

The National Football League’s owners will discuss at meetings next week whether to unilaterally change the league policy to require players to stand during the national anthem.

The decision to consider the change came after weeks of persistent criticism from President Donald Trump about players protesting during the anthem, including his call for fans to boycott games if the demonstrations continue.

In a conference call, NFL spokesman Joe Lockhart said league officials, owners, fans, and likely certain players are frustrated that the issue has dominated the game in recent weeks. He said owners will consider player input on the issue, but suggested that a rule change would not require player approval.

“I don’t believe that the anthem per se is something that needs to be collectively bargained,” Lockhart said.

COMMENT:  They'd better get to it and put those rule changes in place.  Sponsors are going to run away or demand deep discounts if the erosion continues.

October 10, 2017       Permalink

SCHEMING IN IRAN – AT 11:22 A.M. ET:  President Trump will announce his new Iran policy later this week.  Meanwhile, reports surface on what Iran has been doing secretly, and illegally, to build its military arsenal.  From Fox: 

Iran tried to obtain illicit technology that could be used for military nuclear and ballistic missile programs, raising questions about a possible violation of the 2015 agreement intended to stop Tehran’s drive to become an atomic armed power, according to three German intelligence reports obtained by Fox News.

The new intelligence, detailing reports from September and October and disclosed just ahead of President Trump’s planned announcement Thursday on whether the U.S. will recertify the Iran deal, reveals that Iran’s regime made “32 procurement attempts … that definitely or with high likelihood were undertaken for the benefit of proliferation programs.”

According to the document, the 32 attempts took place in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The report lists Iran as a nation that engages in proliferation, which is defined as “spreading atomic, biological or chemical weapons of mass destruction.”

Missile delivery systems are also included in the definition of illicit proliferation activity in the report.

The North Rhine-Westphalia agency accused Iran of using front companies in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and China to circumvent international restrictions on its nuclear and missile programs.

The intelligence report, which covered the year 2016 — the Iran deal was implemented on Jan. 16, 2016 — calls further into question Iran’s compliance with the agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.

COMMENT:  And that's only now.  The JCPOA expires in ten years, leaving Iran free to build nuclear weapons.  With the kind of secret acquisitions it's making today, Tehran will be well equipped to do just that.

October 10, 2017       Permalink

THE BAFFLING POLLS – AT 10:33 A.M. ET:  It's a given that the president is not riding a wave of popularity.  But just where does he stand with the public?

The two polls we most depend on here are the Rasmussen poll and IBD/TIPP, which have records of high accuracy.  And on Trump they profoundly disagree.  From Rasmussen today: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove.
The latest figures include 27% who Strongly Approve of the way the president is performing and 47% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -20.

Trump was up to 46% late last week.

Now, here's IBD/TIPP:

Trump's approval rating took another beating, dropping five points to 33%, while 61% disapprove. Last month, 38% approved while 57% disapproved. That drop brings Trump close to where he was in August, when his approval rating stood at a low 32%.

"The most significant declines in Trump's approval rating, according to our data, came from southerners, conservatives, millennials and women," noted Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the IBD/TIPP poll.

Trump's support in the south plunged 14 points, going from 48% in September to 34% in October. Among conservatives, it went from 72% to 63%; millennials, 33% to 22%; women, 34% to 26%.
Trump's favorability rating went from -20 points in September (38% favorable to 58% unfavorable) to -26 points in October (33% favorable, 59% unfavorable).

More than half (53%), say Trump is providing weak leadership.

COMMENT:  The gap between Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP is a full ten percent.  That's very rare.  Is one poll way off?  Are both? 

But remember – on election day Trump was well behind Hillary Clinton in the polls, and won.  He tends to underpoll.  But neither the Rasmussen result nor the IBD/TIPP numbers are anything to write home about. 

October 10,  2017     Permalink